[SMM Hot Topic] Exports Soar to a New High, Can the "Good Start" in January Continue?

[SMM Hot Topic] Exports Soar to a New High, Can the "Good Start" in January Continue?

On January 14, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 11.301 million mt of steel in December 2025, an increase of 1.321 million mt from the previous month, up 13.24% MoM. From January to December, China's steel exports totaled 119.019 million mt, up 7.5% YoY.

In December, China imported 517,000 mt of steel, down 16.7% YoY. From January to December, China imported 6.059 million mt of steel, a decrease of 11.1% YoY.

Overview of Steel Import and Export Data for December

· Total exports surged significantly in December, affected by the export license policy

China's total steel exports in December increased by 13.24% MoM and 16.18% YoY. The reasons for such a significant increase were twofold. On one hand, following the announcement No. 79 dated December 9, 2025, by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs, which decided to adjust the "Catalog of Goods Subject to Export License Management (2025)" and implement export license management for certain steel products effective January 1, 2026, concerns about subsequent export uncertainties, particularly regarding the practice of forging or purchasing customs clearance documents from other import and export firms, intensified. This prompted a large number of traders to rush shipments collectively, aiming to get goods out before the year-end, leading to another surge in total volume. Furthermore, according to subsequent SMM tracking, cargo congestion occurred at multiple ports due to the rush to meet shipping schedules, and this issue has not yet been fully resolved. On the other hand, the concerted effort by most steel mills to meet annual export targets by year-end also played a key role. According to SMM production schedule data, exports of sheets & plates and long products from steel mills in December continued to grow compared to November. Simultaneously, based on SMM export order data, export orders from November to December increased by 15% compared to those from October to November, perfectly aligning with the MoM rise in total overseas exports.

According to SMM shipping data, as of December 31, the total volume of Chinese steel port departures in December was 12.7192 million mt, an increase of 6.72% compared to November, a trend consistent with customs data.

· China's Steel Imports Remained Low in December

On the import side, China imported 517,000 mt of steel products in December, down 16.7% YoY, maintaining a net export position overall. In January-December, China's steel imports totaled 6.059 million mt, hitting a five-year low.

· Short-Term Outlook for Steel Exports

According to the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5% in December 2025, down 0.1 percentage point MoM, marking the tenth consecutive month within the 49%-50% range. The recovery momentum continued to slow slightly, with the index remaining stable above 49%, indicating a weak recovery pattern; however, the recovery strength has not yet formed effective support and requires further consolidation and improvement. By region, manufacturing in Asia accelerated its expansion, playing a key supporting role in the global economy; the recovery momentum in African manufacturing rebounded; European manufacturing maintained a weak recovery trend; and American manufacturing continued to fall. Based on China's manufacturing PMI data, exports stabilized in December, with the new export orders index at 49%, up 1.4 percentage points MoM.

Data monitored by the World Steel Association show that from January to November 2025, crude steel production in the 70 countries tracked by the association totaled 1.662 billion mt, down 2.0% YoY. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world actually increased by 0.67%. India, with a YoY growth rate of 10.8%, emerged as the primary growth driver in overseas markets, mainly due to sustained investment in domestic infrastructure, the advancement of the "Make in India" strategy, and the targets set by the "National Steel Policy." The continued expansion of global crude steel capacity also exerted some inhibitory effect on China's steel exports.

Examining China's current order-taking advantages and disadvantages from the perspective of global steel prices, taking HRC as an example, as of January 9, 2026, the export offers (FOB) for hot-rolled coil from India, Turkey, and the CIS were $484/mt, $535/mt, and $460/mt, respectively, while China's HRC export offer (FOB) was $469/mt. Currently, China's HRC export prices are higher than those of other countries by $15/mt and $66/mt, respectively, but lower by $9/mt. Although the absolute value still holds an advantage, it is important to note that Vietnam's anti-circumvention measures are expected to take effect soon, and most traders have already stopped taking orders for wide HRC. The last batch of shipments is expected to arrive mostly in January-February. As Vietnam is the largest export destination for China's HRC, subsequent exports face the risk of a significant decline from high levels. In that case, India is highly likely to become the main alternative supplier after Chinese resources are restricted, meaning policy restrictions will also have a substantial impact on China's steel export order-taking.

According to the latest steel mill export scheduling data from SMM, HRC export plans for January have pulled back to normalized levels compared to earlier. Meanwhile, SMM steel export order-taking data show that export orders for December-January fell by 2%-3% MoM from November-December. Current total exports are already at a three-year high, making a pullback in January highly likely. However, considering the lingering port congestion issues mentioned earlier, which may affect the pace of port departures, the extent of the decline is expected to be relatively limited. Coupled with the impact of the Chinese New Year, the data decline is expected to be more evident in February.

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